The Chief Minister of Delhi has
more or less succeeded in pushing the “odd-even car rule” down our throat,
albeit for the first 15 days of the New Year. Many “environmentalists” and “socialists”
have already called it a “great idea” and things like “if London and Singapore
can do it, why can’t we”!
While there is absolutely no
question that Delhi’s pollution levels are at such dangerous and toxic
proportions that it is imperative to tackle this on war footing, it is also
important to understand if this “odd-even car rule” is going to solve the
problem or only exacerbate the discomfort of the citizen of Delhi. That is, if the objective is to control
pollution and not something like decongesting the roads.
The big question is whether the
Delhi car owners are being taken for a ride.
Let’s look at the fact-based
arguments and then the pros and cons. So here goes:
Fact-based arguments
· Vehicular pollution accounts for 30-40% of all
air pollution, according to a draft report from the State Environment and
Forest Department. This means that there are other forms of pollutants like
dust, dirt and soot that contribute to 60-70% pollution in Delhi. This also
implies that even if you stop all vehicles, there would still be 60-70% air pollution to contend with.
Who will bell this cat?
· According to the Delhi Pollution Control
Committee, air toxicity in the capital ranges from 3 times the accepted limit
in some areas to an alarming 14 times the limit at Anand Vihar. Yes, this is
the place that is next to the Ghaziabad bus station and the Patparganj Industrial Area and that which houses the Interstate Bus Terminus (ISBT). No
marks for guessing what kind of vehicle is seen the most here! But, the rule is
not going to cover buses or the industries, so pollution at Anand Vihar is not likely to come
down!
· According to IIT-K, two wheelers account for 34%
of the vehicular pollution (which is 30-40% of total air pollution), 56% from trucks
and other commercial vehicles and only
10% from cars! So even if you stop all
cars from being used on Delhi roads, it is not going to make any appreciable
impact in controlling pollution. So, is this rule barking up the wrong tree?
·
As per the Delhi government data, Delhi has a
little over 2.6 million cars. If you assume that only 40% people use their
cars, that makes it close to 1 million cars being used. Assuming that odd and
even numbers are equally registered, on any given day when the rule is in
implementation, you will have half million people trying to use public
transport. If you assume 100 people can be crammed into a single bus, you would
need 5000 additional buses every day. And this doesn’t take into account 2
wheelers! The government’s intent to introduce 1000 more buses isn’t going to
make the cut.
· Singapore and London & other cities in the
world have a great public transport system that runs on time. And even there,
the rule is applicable only in the CBD (Central Business Districts)
Pros to the rule
· The rule will halve the automobile traffic in
Delhi. However, 5.7 million two-wheelers (scooters and motorcycles) plus 35
lakh commercial vehicles and 5500DTC buses will still use the road as they are
exempt from this rule.
· Cabs and TSRs will see a rise in demand as car
owners will turn to this mode for commuting. Their economic status will improve
· The rule will bring down pollution by 2% from
the existing levels (half of 10% cars of 40% vehicular pollution)
Cons to the rule
· Major polluting agents are not addressed, so
there would hardly be any improvement in air quality
· Car users who work in shifts such as in ITES
industries, Hospitals, etc., will face difficulties on the day they can’t use
their car.
· Women and men who use a driver for their car
will be severely impacted. Since most drivers are men, they cannot drive for
half the days in the month and this would mean either a 50% cut in salary or full
salary for half the work done.
· Delhi is full of small traders and entrepreneurs
who often travel to nearby states for sourcing or selling their wares. They
often go on a road trip and return the next day. With this rule, it becomes
difficult.
· If your children miss their school bus on the “wrong”
day, you cannot take them to the next stop to catch up with the bus. Nor can
you take them to school.
·
If women are going to be exempt from this rule, then
it is going to be very difficult to assess the gender of the driver, barring a
strip search!
· If there is a medical or other emergency, you
have to look for a cab or for a neighbor with the right kind of car number!
· The already hard-pressed Delhi Police will be
stretched even further to implement this rule. It will add to the already
reigning chaos on the road of Delhi in the form of running red lights, driving
against the flow of traffic, parking an arterial roads, lack of lane
discipline, etc. which go undetected.
· People in sales will be completely devastated
with this rule. Their means of living is based on their ability to take their
items of sale to various potential customers across the NCR and taking their
products in public transport is out of the question. They also cannot afford to
use cabs or TSRs.
· The same problem (as in the preceding bullet)
applies to musicians and sportspersons also. They have to take their tools of
trade to practice every day to keep themselves in fine nick to be able to earn
their livelihood. They cannot afford cabs or TSRs and using public transport is
going to inconvenience other users and themselves.
The Verdict
It is pretty evident what the rule
can do and will end up doing. However, I would like readers to please comment
and provide their viewpoint and verdict.